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Chonqing Major Tiers

Mythos 2019-01-17 07:40:46
Kicking off the second quarter of the 2019 season is the Chonqing Major. After a lull over the Christmas break, the very best teams will once again clash in a Valve-backed international tournament. Controversy aside, this should be a fantastic event to watch if you're at all interested in the pro scene. You’d be forgiven for feeling uncertain around the state of the scene. It’s been weeks since many of these teams have played on the big stage and the lower echelons have unearthed changes in the meta that will likely be reflected at the top. This will be a tough tournament to predict. As a place to start, this article should help recap where things were at before the break and predict how the teams rank against each other.  

Prospective Champions

Teams in this tier have a serious shot at winning the whole event. Versatility, lack of flaws, and at least one area that no other team can match brings them to the top.  

Team Secret

Despite finishing second at the previous major and fourth in the Winter Clash, Team Secret is still one of the highest performers under pressure and a terrifying prospect to defeat for most opponents. Coming into the major with their full roster reunited and off the back of a highly successful start to the season, their creative drafting and unification around Nisha’s carry potential gives them a shot at the title.  

Virtus.Pro

After the Kuala Lumpur major, VP looked unbeatable. Their drafting and play left little room to argue; the top DPC team of last season was back in full force. Contrasting this of course, was the MegaFon Winter Clash. Taking place a few weeks later, it saw Virtus.Pro drop out with little more than a struggle. Though that one instance no doubt raised some eyebrows, it was largely a positive early season for the CIS squad and the KL major win stands out as the most significant result. The presence of DPC points also seems to have a little magic for this team, so for now at least, VP remain among the very best.  

Close-but-not-quites

While not currently at the level of the Prospective Champions, the second tier is still filled with very tough competition. Typically teams at this level have an incredibly strong niche that can be exploited by either better teams or stylistically poor matchups.  

Evil Geniuses

EG’s lower bracket run at the Kuala Lumpur major was every bit as epic as one would come to expect from the boys in blue. Arteezy shined as the beacon of hope for North America with renewed form. Once they were figured out by VP however, his hero pool was exploited and the team looked much deflated. A weak performance in the major qualifiers is also up for consideration, though not as much. Evil Geniuses still have one of the most stacked rosters in the world and may return with that spark we saw leading into TI8, now that they’ve had some time off.  

PSG.LGD

Since the International, PDG.LGD has kept within striking distance of the top teams, but struggled to achieve the same form of last season. The potential is still all there and the disparate elements continue fire up seperately. Unfortunately, it’s just not coming together consistently enough for LGD. With the team getting blown out by the likes of Na`Vi and an over-dependence individual players to pick up the slack when others are having an off day, the expectations are starting to slip.  

Team Liquid

Liquid's total domination at the MegaFon Winter Clash would have them among the Prospective Champions. Unfortunately a last minute standin situation hurts their chances. Pulling the former Wings carry, Shadow from obscurity to play at a major has given the squad little time to gel. While it may not be a favourable situation, it does create an engaging storyline. A solid performance here might improve Shadow's prospects of joining a top team. Although not a like-for-like replacement to Miracle-, he apparently speaks English and has the fortune of playing for a very flexible and accommodating team. Make no mistake, even without their brightest star, this Team Liquid is a fearsome beast indeed.  

Vici Gaming

Vici continues to offer rays of hope for the Chinese scene, then routinely snuff it out with disappointing results. When they find their feet, Ori and Paparazi look like perhaps the most dangerous core duo in the world. At other times, they are simply mediocre. If this turns into a hot tournament for the squad, the sky’s the limit. If it’s another cold major, then it may be time to start re-evaluating what this lineup offers as a unit.  

Upsetters

Unlikely to make it far, but still relatively dangerous. This tier is called “upsetters” for a reason. Favourable matchups and inspired performances can result in unexpected victories against otherwise stronger teams.  

Alliance

Alliance has been on the cusp of “great team” for a long time now. It feels like every tournament demonstrates potential, but ultimately results in needing to work on a significant weakness. When facing top teams, Alliance can crack under the pressure of a high-stakes late game, but equally are vulnerable to being trampled over in lanes. With each event, the likelihood that this group will figure it all out, drops. Expect an unlikely win against an arguably stronger team, followed by an early exit.  

Team Aster

Changing midlaners right before the previous major was bold at best, but it didn’t seem to hurt Aster. Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean much, as they had already treated Dstones as a position 3 to 4 in terms of resource-priority. The acquisition of Lover seemed to increase the impact from mid, but they also chose to provide more support in this area. As a result, Xxs and to a lesser degree, Sylar have had less easy laning stages (which was already a vulnerable target for the squad). Now that they’ve had some time to figure things out, we may finally start to see this roster achieve what its players are capable of.  

EHOME

Despite the Bucharest minor being filled with teams that couldn’t qualify for Chonqing, the quality of games was quite high. Particularly the series’ against Gambit (the second-best team at the minor) showed EHOME to have a solid understanding of strategy and draft, high skill, plenty of creativity, and some very clutch decision making. They also come into the major with the double-edged sword of performing well in a prior tournament. This gives them momentum, but also gave other teams a chance to study up. Even though EHOME has plenty of positives, they still have yet to show their ability to compete with the top international teams. A deep run at Chonqing will certainly put them up with VG and PSG.LGD.  

Forward Gaming

Going into Kuala Lumpur, the expectations for this team were high. The gap of skill among their cores had finally began to close and the performance of the entire lineup was a joy to watch. Sadly, expectations were not met and an early exit seemed to halt all momentum for the team. Since the major, Forward has not only ceased contention for top NA team, but barely scrape in at times as a top 10 team in the world. There’s still hope for the boys to pull things back for the major. Another flop here though might cause the team to reassess what they are capable of.  

Fnatic

A relatively small sample size from international tournaments make it difficult to assess where Fnatic sit. Unsurprisingly, they appear to be an undisputed king of SEA, but against the best teams in the world, things just don’t seem to come together enough. Weak showings by both MP and iceiceice hurt the prospects of the team, but also give some hope that a refreshed mindset at the major will improve their chances. Fnatic’s lack of an experienced and decorated captain continues to raise questions -- they clearly have enough individual skill, so the problems likely lie elsewhere.  

J.Storm

A surprisingly good performance in the qualifiers and the acquisition of a seasoned veteran in the form of Fear have built up hype around J.Storm. Initially, this squad aligned itself with an aggressive style akin to MVP.Phoenix (no doubt brought on by March). Recently, this has been tempered and one can expect even more composure with their latest iteration. A roster move, followed by time off, and mediocre performances for most of the season still puts J.Storm firmly in tier 3 though. If ever there was an opportunity to upset the balance of the top NA teams, this will be it.  

TNC Predator

Unable to take down Fnatic seems to be somewhat of a curse for TNC. Unfortunately with only one international tournament, it’s unclear where they sit in the greater competitive scene. For what it's worth, at the KL major, they had an inspired lower bracket run, taking down some stiff competition. Playing with a standin of course hurts their odds a little. In any case, so long as TNC doesn’t run up against Fnatic, they have a shot at surprising opponents.  

Bottom-halfers

Not every team can reach top 8 and it would be above expectation to see any of these squads making the third round of the lower bracket.  

The Pango

An argument could be made to put Pango (formerly NoPangolier) in the Upsetters tier. Despite lacking consistent form, it’s hard to discount their ability to take a series off stronger teams. Particularly the win over VP in a fairly one-sided best of three in the major qualifiers stands out as a hallmark victory. Regardless, a lack of meaningful LAN experience and hit or miss results hurt their chances. Expect the sort of CIS aggression we've seen from teams like VP and Gambit, resulting more in lessons for the team, than objective success.  

Chaos

As the season began, Chaos (formerly known as pain) showed some clutch play and an aggression that could destabilise otherwise favoured teams, netting unexpected wins and many fans along the way. Sadly, this just hasn’t panned out the way they wanted. No longer even holding the mantle of inarguable best in SA, Chaos has failed to find the inspiration that gave them some amount of success at ESL One Hamburg. Though he has previously described himself unsuited to the captain role, it’s up to Misery to try and turn around paiN’s trajectory, as this team’s skill level is unlikely to elevate. Thus the focus is likely on strategy, teamplay, and style.  

Thunder Predator

There isn’t much to say about Thunder Predator. Not only did they make it to the major through another team’s disqualification, but they’ve had to switch players. Their participation will almost certainly lack favourable results, though it should align with Valve’s desire to give South America more opportunities to break out as a serious region. Any international experience for teams like this should be immensely helpful.  
Follow me on Twitter for bite-sized opinion blasts and to be notified when I post future articles: Mythos Images courtesy of ESL, Liquipedia, EHOME, Dota2 Twitter, PVP Esports, J.Storm, Epicenter, Starladder, Thunder Predator, TNC Predator
 

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