This is it, the day we've been waiting for, the final day of the event, and you've got a LOT of range on Saturday. If you get everything right, you're looking at ~340 FP rounding out your score. But if you screw up bad enough, you might only be looking at something like 100. If ever there was a day to consider playing it safe, it's today. There's a lot at stake.  

WHAT DID WE LEARN?

• We learned that Red Bull gives you wings. • I DAMN SURE hope we learned how the final installment of OpenAI 5 will go. • We did NOT learn where some people manage to find so much spare time. • We didn't learn much else. The old saying goes, you win or you learn. We've completely crushed it the last two days, what is there to learn on the fantasy front? All told, my Day 9 score was 317.57, bringing my cumulative total to 2706.45.  

FINAL DAY PLAYER POOL

Like the last two days, the "correct" fantasy play for today will ultimately wind up being going all-in on a team from Lower Bracket, either EG or LGD. That team is obviously not OG, who play only one series, but because of an interesting wrinkle (it's a BO5), their players are still technically viable today (I will explain that in more detail in a bit). Therefore, your player pool comprises ALL REMAINING TEAMS. EVIL GENIUSES RTZ (14.27) SumaiL (16.71) s4 (12.98) Cr1t- (12.08) Fly (13.71) LGD Ame (13.53) Somnus M' (15.65) Chalice (11.52) fy (12.31) xNova (14.71) OG ana (12.54) Topson (12.65) Ceb (11.03) JerAx (12.24) N0tail (15.50)  

THE METHODOLOGY

What hasn't changed is the core concept for those of us who want to go ALL-IN on a team. If you are CONFIDENT in the Lower Bracket finals' result and you go all-in on the correct team, then congratulations, you've achieved the best possible score. I'm not going to sit here and spell out why LGD or EG is the better play. This is somewhere in the neighborhood of a 50/50 pick (early betting odds have LGD as a narrow favorite, while EG 2-0'd LGD in groups, so...who knows). You've watched an entire tournament at this point. You KNOW who you like at this point, and nothing I'm going to tell you is going to change that. Follow your heart. The biggest difference is how hedging today works, and that's what this guide is going to focus on. To understand why today is slightly different than the rest of the all-in days (and to understand why OG is viable when you wouldn't expect them to be), you have to understand the rules. As we've become acutely aware of, a BO3 series awards FP for players based on the best two games submitted. As you may NOT be aware though, the grand finals BO5 will award the THREE best fantasy performances to a player out of 5. That means we have a situation where: Lower Bracket Final LOSERS - Will earn FP for exactly TWO matches (going all in, 2x5, = 10 matches-worth) OG - Will earn FP for exactly THREE matches. (going all in, 3x5, = 15 matches worth) Lower Bracket Final WINNERS - Will earn FP for exactly FIVE matches (going all in, 5x5, = 25 matches-worth. Normally, the team that only plays one series would have the same fate as the team with the potential to go two series that ends up getting eliminated: both play a BO3, and that's that for their scoring today. But in this case, your "third wheel" (OG) is actually the "safest" play available because they're GUARANTEED to split the difference between the lower bracket winner's five games and the lower bracket loser's two games by playing three games. And that's why, to a very limited extent, OG is semi-viable today. Conversely, and equally important, if you go all-in on a team and you pick wrong, that will be guaranteed to be the WORST possible score, which has not been the case up to now. Thus, while not MAXIMIZING your potential, OG players can potentially offer some stability on an exceedingly volatile day. So you might look at this and figure "Well, I have no idea how the lower bracket will go, and if I wanted to split the difference, I'd just go All-OG. That's in the middle, so that's the hedge pick, right?" Well, you COULD do this, but you wouldn't want to...there's actually several better ways to hedge available to you. As covered above, your five-man roster is going to account for somewhere between 10 and 25 combined games worth of points between the five of your players. 10 means you went all in and lost your ass, 25 means you went all in and got it completely right. In the middle of those two extremes, there's an ocean of possibilities. You could go, for instance, 4 LGD and 1 OG, which will either get you 11 games or 23 games . You could go 3 EG, an LGD and an OG, which will either get you 14 games or 20 games. Supposing you went with a traditional split (3-2) and took 3 LGDs and 2 EGs (or vice versa), you're looking at a range of 16 and 19. There's actually a split that's DEAD-NUTS CENTER, the 2-2-1 approach, which will net you exactly 17 games no matter what happens (that's 2 LGD, 2 EG and 1 OG, to be clear). In general, the other appeal of hedging is the part where you get to cherry pick the very best players available, as opposed to getting roped into a team's crappier options just because you're going all-in with them. In fact, my favorite hedging option tomorrow is going to be N0tail, and it's a simple matter of doing the math. The inferior supports on EG and LGD are Cr1t- and fy respectively, each of whom have averaged ~12 FP over the course of the tournament. N0tail has averaged 15.5 for the tournament, and an ungodly 17.7 FP/game on the main stage (although take those "main stage numbers" with a grain of salt, given that he's basically been doing nothing BUT winning to achieve that). For the purpose of this next experiment, we'll round him to 16 FP/game to split the difference. On the plus side, if they win... Cr1t- or fy - 5 games x 12 FP/game = 60 FP BUT IF THEY LOSE... Cr1t of fy - 2 games x 12 FP/game = 24 FP That's a lot of risk right there, but look what happens with N0tail. N0tail: 3 games x 16 FP/game = 48 FP Again, he's scoring in 3 games regardless. You're telling me I can lower my projected ceiling by a measly 12 FP, but raise my projected floor by nearly 30? That's great value, sign me up. Crap, if I'm "signing up" for things, I guess it's about that time.  

MY FINAL DAY PICKS

As I already mentioned, I'm grabbing N0tail, because while it's not going to be the ABSOLUTE best possible choice in all likelihood, we should at least be looking at a pretty safe play with relatively little downside (unless OG get hyphy-stomped, which I guess is possible). The way I see it, if I get my overall team pick right, I'm reducing my ceiling by around 3%, but if I screw it up and pick the wrong team, I'm raising my floor significantly, by possibly 12% or so. Worth it. I can go with a big balls play that JUST ABOUT maximizes what I could have done Saturday, and even if it backfires, I'll have done better than the majority of people who screwed up along with me because of that N0tail play outscoring anybody else in my lineup. And as for the rest? Yeah, I could do the responsible thing and hedge here. After all, I'm pretty much guaranteed Top 10% at this point. Why not just take a knee and run out the clock? A lineup of, say, SumaiL-Somnus-s4-xNova-N0tail looks great, and I'd expect around 260-270 with that group. Given my estimate for a "perfect day" was somewhere in the neighborhood of 340 and the "bad ending" is like 100, that hedge total isn't bad at all! But I know the future. At least some of it, the part that pertains to my own well-being. Hedging might be the prudent course of action here and the responsible thing to do. But if I do that, I KNOW I'll be kicking myself after the first series is over, and I'll be mad at myself for pussing out as I watch only two guys in my lineup play in the grand final. I'll be bummed out. And this is fantasy, which is supposed to make me happy. I don't want my last thought to be bummed. So I'm prepared. I'm prepared to be a conquering hero, and I'm prepared to die on my shield. Let the fates decide. I made my pick before the tournament started, I stuck with that pick when it was time for bracket predictions, and I'm sticking with it even now, to the bitter end. I'm going LGD with a N0tail chaser. (Ame-Somnus-Chalice-xNova-N0tail). It's been my pleasure, my brothers. Good night, you princes of Maine, you kings of New England. Scrub Out.