KarY
2019-07-04 02:06:43
Vitality vs fnatic
Vitality is here to revive the hopes of French Counter-Strike just when everyone had counted them out. Everyone seems to be in top form. Zywoo is on a whole new level, and if he keeps performing like this, he might just give s1mple a serious run for the “Best Player Of The Year” award at the end of 2019.
That being said, Vitality has shown us that they have a pretty deep strategy book on Overpass and Nuke. To top it all off, Vitality are not afraid to play Vertigo, so we know that they are ready to take on anyone in case the veto calls for it. With recent wins at ECS S7 and CS_Summit 4, Vitality are one of those teams who might just win the entire tournament.
While fnatic are heading down the redemption road, they might not be quite there yet. They are a pretty momentum based team that means they usually have a few strategies to begin with.
However, once they are figured out, they sometimes struggle to adjust on the fly. Their slow and methodical approach might be put through the acid test against the disruptive and aggressive playstyle of the French team.
Vitality are currently the third best team in the world, meanwhile fnatic sits on #11.
Predicted winner: Vitality
Upset potential: low
Liquid vs NRG
This is the most exciting match of the day. Both the teams hailing from North America have put the continent on the map. They proved to the world that NA CS is no joke, and can give the European giants a run for their money.
Liquid is one of the favourites to win the entire tournament. A lot of fans are expecting to see them fight against Astralis in the grand finals. However, trailing close behind is NRG, who have had a massive improvement in form and synergy since mid-2018.
NRG faces the current best team in the world to earn the bragging rights of “the best team in North America”. Funny how some match-ups turn out.
According to the HLTV rankings, Liquid are currently the number one team in the world. NRG is trailing close behind at the sixth spot. Ironically, Cologne is infamous for proving the rankings wrong.
In the recent past, Liquid have won 19 maps against NRG, while NRG has won 18. This indicates they are super close head-to-head.
To determine the winner of this bo3, only the map statistics will help us. Surprisingly, both the teams have similar map statistics. The only thing that gives Liquid an edge, is their superiority on Inferno and Vertigo. If either of these maps are picked, Liquid instantly get a massive advantage. On every other map, NRG is on the same level as Liquid.
Predicted winner - Liquid
Upset probability - High
Astralis vs NiP
Ninjas in Pyjamas have shown us that they can surprise Astralis in bo1 scenarios. However, they have never won a bo3 against the Danish team. NiP has faced Astralis on 8 maps in 2019, but did not manage to beat them even once. Astralis are on a quest to snatch the World #1 spot back from Liquid. It is unlikely that they will stumble against NiP on this grand quest hence the predictions on this one isn't that difficult.
Predicted winner - Astralis
Upset Potential - Low
Mousesports vs Na`Vi
Mousesports face Na`Vi in a rematch in the Lower Bracket Finals. Mouz is looking for revenge for the loss they suffered in the opening match of Group A where the game was neck to neck (16-14).
That was the only match they have played in the recent past. Also, both the teams are pretty close on the ranking table, #10 and #13. These factors are conclusive evidence that the match between these two teams will result in one coming out on top by the skin of their teeth.
So what sets these teams apart? Mousesports have a 92% win rate on Train across 12 maps. This is the only battlefield where the difference between their map-wise win rates have a significant difference.
The only thing that gives Na`Vi an edge is the fact that their recent addition of boombl4 will make it difficult for mousesports to research their opponents. Secondly, s1mple and electronic are momentum based players and It will be difficult to stop them once they start landing some sick headshots.
Winner predictions - Na`Vi
Upset Potential - EXTREMELY HIGH. Match can go either way.
BIG vs Heroic
Finally, the toughest nut to crack in this one. This match is also difficult to predict, but for all the wrong reasons. Unlike mousesports vs Na`Vi, where both the teams are highly skilled; BIG and Heroic are both inconsistent.
They’ve both had some high moments in this tournament; such as BIG and Heroic defeating MIBR and Ence, respectively. On the other hand, these teams have suffered losses to significantly weaker opponents in the last month --Heroic losing to forZe, NoChance and CR4ZY whereas BIG falling to Valiance and Windigo.
If we compare these two head to head, BIG beat Heroic 2-0 at DreamHack Masters Dallas. Heroic beat BIG 2-0 at ESL Pro League S9 Europe. All this data so far, leads us to assume that they both are on the same level.
The tie-breaker that helped me finally select a winner is the HLTV ranking. While the ranking may not always accurately decide which team would win, Heroic is on the 14th rank, whereas BIG is not even in the top 30.
Due to this massive difference, our predictions favour Heroic to perform better than BIG tomorrow. However, things can go either way.
Predicted Winner - Heroic
Upset Potential: EXTREMELY HIGH. Match can go either way