Written by: PengWin

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As Blizzcon season approaches, just one more World Championship Series event remains in the 2016 circuit: KeSPA Cup 2016. As the only WCS global event of this year, the KeSPA Cup offers us a prelude to the foreigner vs Korean storyline that awaits us at the global finals. Neeb, Marinelord and Nerchio will fight to show that the foreign scene truly has closed the gap compared to previous years. The most interesting battle however may be the Patience vs Classic race for top 8 in the WCS Korea standings.

Group A: Neeb vs Korean All Stars

For fans hoping to see Neeb make a deep run this KeSPA cup, the group draw was a brutal kick in the teeth. Neeb will be facing off against both 2016 GSL champions, Zest and ByuN, as well as the creative wildcard Rogue. Zest enters the group as the big question mark. While the KT Rolster star was undisputedly the best Protoss in the world for a solid six months, he has fallen off hard this Summer, struggling to string together any semblance of good form. Zest has always been a player that can pull a world class performance seemingly out of nowhere though (IEM Katowice 2015, anybody?), so it would be silly to write him off.

Image courtesy of Aligulac

ByuN obviously comes in as the favorite, following his recent GSL win. He should be thrilled to have two Protosses in his group having handily dismantled both Dear and sOs on his way to the GSL trophy. Neeb, however, could prove to be a thorn in his side as ByuN has publicly acknowledged that Neeb was one of his primary practice partners for the finals. While in a best of 5 it would be hard to imagine Neeb taking out ByuN, these groups are best of 3 matches, so with some solid preparation and knowledge of his opponent, Neeb has a chance. With the Terran boasting a 91.80% winrate against Protoss in his current form (according to Aligulac), it will be an uphill battle for sure.

Finally, we have Rogue. Rogue has looked incredible at times this year, and with his creative style, he’s often most dangerous when he’s had some down time to spend in the lab working on his new experiments. Rogue has only played ten broadcast games since mid July, so he could have all kinds of tricks up his sleeve. In this stacked a group, really anything could happen, so it’s very difficult to make a prediction, but based on current form, ByuN and Neeb should advance in first and second respectively.

Group B: Of Underdogs and Underperformers

Oh yeah, Pet exists. The MVP player had zero offline tournament appearances for almost two years outside of a handful of 2015 Proleague games, but he made his return to GSL Code A in Season 2. Despite losing, he took herO to a game 5, and looked a lot better than most people expected him to. People may look to his qualifier win over Dark as an incredibly impressive result propelling him into this tournament, but frankly without a broadcast to look at we don’t know if he played flawless Starcraft, or simply pulled out a couple of ZvZ build order wins. That, however, will work to his advantage as there just isn’t anything to look at to prepare for him. His opponents will be in the dark.

herO has had a disappointing year in individual leagues, and while it wouldn’t be fair to call TY and underperformer, he hasn’t dominated to the same extent that many expected him to. herO has done just barely well enough in the individual leagues to still have a tiny, tiny shot at Blizzcon: He must win this KeSPA cup, Classic must lose in the groups and Patience must not advance beyond top 8. While it’s not much, it’s a bit of added motivation for herO, a 5 time champion who hasn’t gone a year without a trophy since 2012. TY is safe for Blizzcon, but in arguably the easiest group, he will have his eyes set on advancing.

True had a very quiet year until he put his name in the hat for Blizzcon following a dominant performance in the WCS Summer Championship. This tournament is a great opportunity for True to really show his mettle against the Korean scene before Blizzcon. He’s had so few tournaments that many are still very unsure where to rate him. Perhaps most importantly, True will be looking for WCS points to bump up his seeding at Blizzcon so as to avoid the names like ByuN. TY and True to advance.

Group C: The Korean All-Killer: Round 2?

When talking about MarineLorD’s accomplishments, it’s difficult to leave out the Best of 9 all kill in Nation Wars III against Korea’s team. While it’s unlikely he’ll be able to repeat that feat in a group with a Starleague champion and a Cross Finals winner, MarineLorD has been on a bit of a tear online recently, both in the KeSPA / WESG qualifiers as well as in Top Dogs.

Solar comes into this tournament fresh off of a Starleague win, and he will be hungry for more. Solar has been one of the most dominant names in Legacy of the Void since the beta, and capturing his first Korean league trophy has definitely been a motivation boost for him going into the end of the year. That being said, Stats did finish as runner up in Starleague Season 1, defeating Solar and winning the Cross Finals as well. The big battle to watch will be to see which of these two titans makes it out in first.

Trap seems to have one amazing tournament per year. It looks almost random at the time, but it happens. In 2014, he came out of nowhere to win MLG Anaheim. In 2015, he showed up again to claim second in IEM Katowice. This year, he has not had a performance like that yet, and this is the last chance. If this really is a pattern, I guess Trap should be considered a favorite. Realistically, though, after failing to qualify for either Starleague main events and losing in Code A and the Round of 16 in the two GSL seasons, it would be a big surprise for him to advance.

Of all the groups, this one should be the most straightforward: Stats and Solar should advance. Trap’s accomplishments this year have just not been up to the level of his opponents. In a best of 3 format, naturally upsets are more prone to occur, so this will still definitely be a group to watch, but it’s very difficult to see past Stats and Solar for the top two spots.

Group D: The Battle for Blizzcon

We talk about storylines a lot in the Starcraft scene, and how much it enriches a tournament to have really important stories to follow. It doesn’t get much better than this: Classic is currently ranked 8th with 4325 points and Patience is ranked 9th with 4225 points. In layman’s terms, what this means is that Patience must outperform Classic to qualify for the global finals. Classic must advance as far as Patience to hold onto that 8th place. Having these two in the same group makes for a potential head to head best of 3 fight for a chance at a Blizzcon spot.

2016 matches between Patience and Classic - courtesy of Aligulac

Also featured in this group is the foreign hope, Nerchio, and Jin Air Proleague ace, Maru. Nerchio is one of the foreigners that Koreans regularly praise in interviews, and he showed why in Shoutcraft Kings September, dethroning ByuN and taking out Maru, Creator, Rogue, MyuNgSiK and Ryung along the way. Of all the non-Koreans, Nerchio looks like the strongest contender for a deep Blizzcon run, and he’ll be looking to strike fear into the hearts of his Korean foes at the KeSPA Cup as well.

Maru’s had a really weird year. 2nd place in Proleague wins qualified him for this event, but frankly his individual league performances have just been awful. To sum up: One Code A loss, one SSL qualifier loss, one SSL Challenge elimination and a Round of 16 elimination in Code S. Considering his impeccable Proleague record, it just doesn’t really add up. It’s almost impossible to predict how well he’ll play in this tournament, but it’s his last chance at a solid individual performance in 2016, so motivation should be running high.

This is absolutely the group to watch if you’re looking for storylines. Will the foreign hope shine through? Will the Proleague star finally perform well in an individual league? Will Classic or Patience qualify for the global finals? It’s anyone’s guess, but I’ll say Patience and Nerchio to advance.

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