Falco is going through a rough patch. Despite Falco’s high placement in the tier list, his tournament performance has weakened these past two years. In the absence of Kevin “PPMD” Nanney and his preference for Marth lately, there are only two players carrying the burden of the bird: Joseph “Mang0” Marquez and Weston “Westballz” Dennis.

Sure, each player has had their moment of grandeur with Falco in the past two years such as Westballz at Sandstorm and Mang0 at Paragon Los Angeles, but across the board, Falco mains' suffering stays consistent. When Mang0 does win lately, it's usually because of Fox more than it is because of Falco. 

Mang0’s best performances in 2016 have been with Fox. Meanwhile, his Falco faltered, especially at the UCG Smash Open where he went only Falco. He lost early in the bracket to Michael “MikeHaze” Pulido and was knocked out by Jason “Mew2King” Zimmerman. At DreamHack Winter 2016, Mang0 also went only Falco, losing to Juan “Hungrybox” DeBiedma and William “Leffen” Hjelte. He placed 13th at the UCG and 4th at DHW 2016. In other tournaments, Mang0 used a combination of Fox and Falco, Falco being the lesser played and less successful of the two. A few times, he’s played Marth too. 

Westballz is the other Falco giving the spacie good representation. On various occasions, he’s switched off Falco in lieu of a perceived better choice. When he does switch he goes Fox or Captain Falcon as a way to fight against Adam “Armada” Lindgren’s Peach or James “Duck” Ma’s Samus and switches to Fox for Hungrybox’s Jigglypuff.

Of course it’s understandable that a player does whatever it takes to win, but in Westballz’s tendency to counter-pick and Mang0’s now non-winning Falco, Falco’s metagame is hurt. Outside of these two players, no one else is pushing Falco with results. And that is going to have a ripple effect into the high, middle, and low level Falcos -- especially with more and more players learning to powershield lasers consistently, capitalizing on Falco's laughable recovery, and taking advantage of his slow run speed.

If no Falco at the top level of play is figuring out the tough floaty match-ups, then Falco is going to remain stagnant in the meta. Worse of all, if Falco isn’t winning a major, it puts his viability at jeopardy.

Even when PPMD’s career is plugged into the equation, it looks bleak for Falco. He began switching off Falco for certain match-ups as far back as 2012. PPMD started relying on Marth for certain match-ups. 2015-2016 is the climax of that transition where he looked better on Marth more than Falco and won Apex 2015 with a little help from Falco.

Further back, Chris “PC Chris” Szygiel switched off Falco in tournament too. At MLG Las Vegas in 2006, one of his crowning achievements, PC Chris won the set against Daniel “KDJ” Jung using Fox, not Falco in the final two games. When not counter picking with Fox, PC Chris was also known for his Peach. While a bulk of his accomplishments were with Falco, he still felt the need to counter-pick as per the course for most Falcos.

In 2009 Julian “Zhu” Zhu placed 13th at Revival of Melee. He’s one of the oldest Falcos to remain in the modern era of Melee. Alongside Mang0 and Westballz, Zhu follows a step behind them.

Yet Zhu has also shown a lack of faith with Falco. In 2015, he considered using a mix of Fox and Falco in tournament. At The Big House 5, he used Shiek, Fox and Falco. A year later at The Big House 6, Zhu switched to Fox to save himself from a possible elimination by Jacob “Jflex” Pinto in losers side of top 64. For the most part, Zhu has stuck with Falco in 2016, showing commitment, but he’s an example of the doubt that the best Falcos have about their own character.

Counter-picking isn’t anything new. It's a part of top level Melee, but the fact that the best Falcos are doing it on many various match-ups shows his limits. 

Jeffrey “Axe” Williamson has taken Pikachu to notable top eight finishes as has Armada with Peach, DaJuan “Shroomed” McDaniel with Sheik, Kevin "PewPewU" Toy with Marth, Hungrybox with Jigglypuff, and the several Foxes like Leffen, Zachary “SFAT” Cordoni, and Mustafa “Ice” Akcakaya without the character crisis. As side note, Axe is one of the only top players to counter-pick with Falco as a non-main, which is why he's included in the spreadsheet. He doesn’t pull it out often, but Axe has used Falco in tournaments as a counter-pick with mixed success.

In the same year Zhu placed 13th at Revival of Melee, Westballz entered his first tournament which began his rise as the most technical Falco to grace CRTs. He filled an emptiness that Falco players didn’t know they would have. Westballz was ranked 9th in 2014 on the Melee It On Me rankings and 8th in 2015. That means Westballz has been around the same rank for three years. He’s hit amazing peaks in the past, beating Mang0 and Hungrybox, but is unable to make a permanent leap forward. His progression has come to a halt. 

Without Westballz, the skill gap between Falcos would be worse than its current state. Based off the last two years of majors and supermajors, there’s plenty of high level Falcos keeping the representation strong, but none are making jumps to the top. And if Westballz continues to switch off Falco in tournament, then there'll be less understanding of the character's potential.

Early this year there was some hope that Sami “DruggedFox” Muhanna would be the next best thing for Falco. In his first appearance using Falco, DruggedFox outplaced every other Falco main at Genesis 3. He finished at 13th. His future performance and fresh perspective could have ushered Falco into a new era, but he dropped Falco for the obvious better choice: Fox. Whereas Falcos are struggling to make their character work, Foxes are privileged enough to be unfazed and winning majors. 

Now imagine you’re a Falco main that wants to make it big. What do you study from? Studying old Falco videos is kinda useful, but they’re likely outdated. You’ll definitely find enough footage of Falco vs Shiek, Marth, Fox -- but once it gets to floaties like Peach, Jigglypuff, and Samus it gets sketchy.

There’s no Falco that’s been able to beat Hungrybox’s Jigglypuff recently. The same applies to Armada’s Peach; Falco has struggled against them the last two years. Mang0 and Westballz have come close but failed to close it out. Is their failure because of character limits or because Armada and Hungrybox are just that good versus Falco? That's another problem in observing character strengths and weaknesses. Armada and Hungrybox are two of the best players in the world, so when Falcos lose, it's tough to assess whether it's because of player or character faults.

This means that up-and-coming Falcos are going to need to rely on their own innovations when faced with floaty characters. As stated earlier, because the top Falcos aren’t sticking with him, then the development of the character gets hurt. In addition, there are inconsistencies with studying matches because of player preference. Westballz lost to Duck at Smash Summit 3, switching off Falco for Falcon in game 4 and 5. The weekend prior, Zhu defeated Duck using Falco in a best of three at Canada Cup 2016. Is Zhu better at the match-up than Westballz? Was it an off day for Duck, the spacie slayer? It's hard to come to conclusions when the data is low, especially with Duck being the only Samus player at the top level.

On several tierlists, in both NTSC and PAL, Falco is commonly rated as a top four character. Aziz "Hax" Al-Yami' considers Falco as 4th from his tier list released this past August.

However, Falco’s prospect of winning majors doesn't reflect his high placement as of late. This means that with the changing metagame, Falco has become weaker, or that Falco is weaker because no one is developing the character further. Westballz has taken Falco’s punish game to great heights, but lacks in the neutral. Westballz’s tendency for shenanigans and high-risk options also hurt his play. Mang0, on the other hand, has a more unique playstyle with harsh combos, but it’s not enough for him to win majors right now.

Aside from Mang0, Westballz, and Zhu, there’s no other Falco breaking into the top twenty. That doesn’t mean there’s an absence of Falco mains though. You’ll find tons of them at the local and regional levels that fuel any hatred that the character gets for his rolls, annoying lasers, and defense.

There’s no telling what 2017 will bring for Falco. The possible return of PPMD could be a second coming for Falco... or he could just stick with Marth. A new Falco could enter the struggl,e or a current one has a break out performance. Alternatively, more Falco mains could give in and make the switch like long-time Falco main Frank "Frootloop" Borden did.

Falco's future is impossible to predict, but at this moment he’s in need of a savior. 

If you enjoyed this piece, follow the author for more at @MooricioMuniz