CD-Mangaka
2016-10-13 07:05:11
With the top 8 brackets of the League of Legends 2016 World Championship drawn, I wanted to look into the hypothetical timelines we are possibly approaching. I’m not the biggest fan of how the brackets have been drawn, as the left side is so stacked that the true final is actually going to be a semifinal, but it lends more possibility to crazy storylines occurring. Rather than explore each possible permutation of outcomes, I wanted to focus on overarching storylines that existed before the tournament, and ones that have developed within the group stages. I’ve chosen to focus on realistic storylines (i.e. what’s likely going to happen) to inform the reader, and fantastical ones to entertain them.
Let’s begin.
A story under the umbrella of Korea’s international dominance in LoL and at home, it is the largest and arguably most important narrative for this world championship.
The Tigers and SK Telecom have been entangled in a duel for the past two years over the title of best team in the world. SKT has decisively come out ahead in that regard. It has defeated the Tigers in several best of five playoff matches: the LCK finals of spring 2015, the 2015 world championship, and the LCK finals of spring 2016. Though the Tigers have been dominant in the regular seasons, it has failed to defeat SKT in the crucial match. In 2015, SKT adapted to meta changes better and became the best team, but this year one can argue that the Tigers are the best team, yet SKT is a resilient kryptonite that the Tigers haven’t overcome. That will have to be settled in a semifinal meeting in a rematch of last year’s grand final, and, simply due to opposite bracket being weaker, the true final of this year.
(Images courtesy of LoL Esports Flickr, ROX and Faker. Edited by Colin Nimer.)
This is the conclusive showdown for summer. SKT fell to KT Rolster in the semifinal of the LCK playoffs, and ROX Tigers edged it over KT to claim it. Now, they will get to decide the matter not in Korea, but in New York. Does SKT bounce back from a difficult year, once again halt the Tigers’ advancement, and secure itself a third world championship? Or will the Tigers finally defeat SKT and get their chance to bathe in the glory denied them?
Having Korea’s 1st seed play China’s 1st and Korea’s 2nd seed against China’s 2nd on the same side of the bracket shows how disgusting that group draw was. Still, we are forced to play the hand were dealt, and we have the most competitive bracket side in terms of standing in LoL history.
Historically, China has been Korea’s closest competitor, but Korea has walked away with the glory at most international events. Last year, after importing most of Korea’s top talent, China took a victory with EDG at MSI, and it looked like China could claim the region’s first world championship. But when worlds came around, most of the hyped Chinese teams collapsed in the group stages, and EDG, the only one to make it out, was swept in the quarterfinal by Fnatic. This year is a chance for China to redeem that loss to the general public, but it has to do it right out of the gate.
(Image Courtesy of LoL Esports Flickr)
I won’t delude you and say that these look like even games: it’s heavily in favor of the Korean teams. With Song “Smeb” Kyung-ho, the best top laner in the world, against EDG’s substitute Tong “Koro1” Yang, who hasn’t been playing with the team and is only now entering to fill due to a medical emergency, the Tigers have an easy window to snowball the game. It could be closer if the ROX Tigers play as weak of an early game as they did in the group stages, and EDG has mounted comebacks, but looking at the Tigers’ impeccable mid game teamfighting, and assuming that the Tigers will play more like its final dominant game against Albus NoX Luna, it’s harder to see EDG taking three games off of ROX. Meanwhile, Royal Never Give Up has been vastly inconsistent, varying between looking like five individuals in solo queue and a coordinated team with a plan. SKT will likely be able to punish RNG’s mistakes, possibly dropping a game or two when RNG get it together.
While watching a four teams from two regions battle it out in cross-regional matchups is not indicative to the regions as a whole, fans will interpret the results as such and use that to banter on the internet for regional pride’s sake. Should both Korean teams win, then it’s business as usual, but if the Chinese teams win, we can consider the regions bombing out at the 2015 world championship forgotten.
The most maligned Korean team at worlds is Samsung, namely because KT Rolster fans are still reeling from the upset in the regional qualifier. That said, I think Samsung has shown with a 5-1 record in Group D, which every analyst has considered to be the hardest one to call, that has more than earned the right to compete here. Not only that, it has one hell of a bracket draw. With the tournament favorites on the other side, Samsung will not have to face a Korean or Chinese team until the grand final. It will face North American Cloud 9 in the quarterfinals, and then the winner of Europe’s H2K and CIS’ Albus NoX Luna.
(Image Courtesy of LoL Esports Flickr)
Samsung has been knee-deep in a rebuilding for the past two years, and only now is enjoying the fruits of its labor. In 2014, it sent two teams, Samsung Blue and Samsung White, to Worlds, and White won it all in crushing fashion. Following that event, all ten of its players left to take up better paying contracts in China. Samsung had to bring on rookies and minimally experienced players. It was one of the worst LCK teams through 2015, but in 2016, with the acquisition of Kang “Ambition” Chan-yong, it edged out as a middle of the pack team and made playoffs in summer. Then it fought tooth-and-nail through the qualifier to get here.
It’s kept its aspirations realistic, with most members saying that a semi-final finish would be the best possible outcome. But that was said before the bracket draw. With a bracket like this, it’s possible for Samsung to make it back to the final. The run, though, would lack legitimacy since it had a considerably easier side, but if it were to upset a team like ROX or SKT in the final to complete the story of its two year return to the championship, then KT fans may be more open to accepting KT’s death for Samsung.
Yes, I am actually going to talk about non-Korean teams! Albus NoX Luna has captured our hearts and minds with its solid play and loveable players that have cast the wildcard regions in a new light. Still, there is a question mark for me and others: how will it look in a best of 5 now that teams are going to be looking at it?
(Image Courtesy of LoL Esports Flickr)
ANX got a great draw for quarter finals in H2K. While H2K’s has relied on early game snowballing, it has always stumbled in the mid game to close as it loses sight of where to pressure. ANX, on the other hand, has shown great mid-game understanding by securing uncontested barons through stealthy map movement and great vision control. It’s possible for ANX to take games off of H2K, especially if it nullifies H2K’s early laning strategy, which is also a possibility if Alexander "PvPStejos" Glazkov contains Marcin "Jankos" Jankowski and then pressures bot lane.
A quarter final finish would stand as the best showing of an international wildcard team ever, but how far can ANX take the dream? A run to finals, though ludicrous, could be possible if it manages to overcome H2K, and then Cloud 9 if it manages to upset Samsung. But if it meets Samsung in the semifinals, I am confident to say that would be the end of ANX.
But then again, most of us had them at last in Group A, didn’t we?
Western Hopes: Cloud 9 and H2K
The section LCS fans have been waiting for. Of the 16 worlds teams, only two of the six LCS teams have made it out of groups: Cloud 9 and H2K. Neither were the favorites to represent their region.While people expected H2K to make it out, no one thought it was going to take first in Group C, especially after week 1. Cloud 9 was seen as a team that could fall to either Flash Wolves or I May, but it managed to make it out as North America’s last team.
(Image Courtesy of LoL Esports Flickr)
I’ll be honest -- I expect Cloud9 to get crushed by Samsung. William “Meteos” Hartman has been lackluster this tournament, failing to create enormous early pressure on most picks and misplaying teamfights. He should be crushed by Ambition, and I don’t see Cloud 9’s lanes, with possibly the exception of bot lane, getting individual advantages over Samsung’s lanes. I think Cloud 9’s run ends at quarters, but maybe Samsung fall back to drafting losing lanes and allow C9 to snowball. Realistically, that could happen in a game, and then Samsung go right back to their group performance level.
H2K is a different beast. I expect them to advance over ANX, though I have question marks over that. If it does do so, it could possibly contest Samsung in the semifinal. I think that at each individual position we have interesting matchups, but I want to highlight the botlane here. Samsung’s duo lane hasn’t been a strong 2v2, unlike H2K’s bot lane by the power of Konstantinos-Napoleon "FORG1VEN" Tzortziou, but it has drafted around strong ADC players before and nullified them through champ select. If H2K manage to prevent that and let FORG1VEN take over a game, H2K could win, but I have to give Samsung the edge in how it handles the mid game over H2K again for reasons previously stated.
(Image courtesy of LoL Esports Flickr)
It’s not impossible for H2K to make a run to finals, but again, the legitimacy is in question given how weak its side of the bracket is. However, I’m sure EULCS fans wouldn’t mind that happening, and I know that watching FORG1VEN play in the final would go down in LoL history.
Let’s talk the truly insane for a moment.
Jian "Uzi" Zi-Hao has a myth shrouding him: the “Uzi Worlds’ Buff.” It’s been noted that Uzi has been in the final of both world championships he’s attending, and many have credited the reason to his raw mechanical ability. From crushing lane to then masterfully maneuvering teamfights, the “raise the puppy” strategy is his claim to fame. Of course, LPL expert Kelsey Moser has accurately explained that it’s not Uzi popping off, but his team finally becoming cohesive, that has been the reason Uzi has made it so far, but reasoning with fans set on opinions is an uphill battle.
As much as I dislike how the brackets have been drawn, it has set the stage for the ultimate revenge story for Uzi. Every time he’s gotten to the final, a team has gotten in his way: SKT in 2013, and Samsung White in 2014. It’s always been a Korean team that has stopped his campaign short. But with how the brackets are, and if everything goes as expected, Uzi’s chance of the final would mean he would have to defeat every single Korean team in attendance. First, SKT, beating down Lee “Faker” Sang-hyeok’s bid for a third title.Then, the ROX Tigers, Korea’s first seed, and Smeb, the best top laner in the world. To finish it, Samsung, the organization that stopped him in 2014 and which beat RNG twice in the group stage. In one run, Uzi crushes Korea and avenges both of his previous defeats at worlds.
(Image courtesy of LoL Esports Flickr)
That would be the most insane anime-storyline of all time in LoL.
Of course, there exists some variance: maybe EDG upsets ROX and RNG has to avenge the loss in the LPL summer final? Or perhaps RNG makes the final and waiting for them is FORG1VEN and H2K, who Uzi personally wished to meet in the final.
What makes this utterly crazy is the fact that RNG’s chances are slim. Their inconsistency is a real issue, and stringing together six victories against Korea’s top two teams or EDG (who swept it in the summer final) is a momentous task. I don’t think this will happen. I don’t think it can.
But by god, would the internet end if it did.
(Cover Image Courtesy of LoL Esports Flickr)
