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Where Potential Trumps Poor Consistency: Overwatch League Semifinals Predictions

Volamel 2018-07-17 03:05:38
  Right before the culmination of the London Spitfire and the Los Angeles Gladiators, Josh "Sideshow" Wilkinson dropped this anecdote that still rings throughout the Burbank Studio, “Things can turn around fast in Overwatch” and I couldn't agree more seeing the result of the Quarterfinal matches. Now, we get to the meat and potatoes of the playoffs where we finally get to see how the first seed, New York Excelsior, and the second seed, Los Angeles Valiant, will fare on this new and reactive environment. The first match on the docket will feature the team no one expected and the team that everyone was rooting for. The winner of the London Spitfire and Los Angeles Valiant will have their work cut out for them as they will end up meeting the winner of the New York Excelsior and the Philadelphia Fusion.  

London Spitfire [1-2] Los Angeles Valiant

  In an interview with the official Overwatch League website, London Spitfire support player Kim "NUS" Jong-Seok gave some insight into his upcoming match against the Valiant. “More than feeling happy about beating the Gladiators, I’m worried because the Valiant know us so well,” Nus said. “In scrims, there have been times when we’ve lost pretty badly to them.” If you’ve followed Overwatch or any esport for that matter, follow me on this one; we often hear about how well teams are doing in practice and very rarely does that ever equate to a team doing well. In my opinion, teams that lose on average in practice have a more clear route to improve on. So while NUS might not be confident going into their match with the LA Valiant, rest assured - he should have plenty of great resources available to him from his time practicing against the Valiant. In their match with the Gladiators, London unveiled a level of preparation that we have not seen in a long time from them, which could be an omen of things to come. They looked to shake off the stigma of Sad Spitfire and return to Stage 1 Spitfire -- Scary Spitfire. I pegged them as a “Dive only” team and they served me up a large plate of crow for me to feast on. And leading that charge were two people that really stood out; Park "Profit" Joon-Yeong and Kim "Fury" Jun-ho. Former professional League of Legends player, coach, and commentator Brandon "Saintvicious" DiMarco had a brilliant tweet the other day explaining the definitions of two words that are often thrown around in Overwatch at will: mechanics and reflexes. “I think people incorrectly compare mechanics to reflexes,” DiMarco wrote. “Mechanics are your ability to read micro situations, understand what will happen, then perform the proper reaction to said situation based on previous experience. Reflexes are your reaction speed to unread actions in-game.” Both Profit and Fury have shown a level of high-speed twitch reaction and have a skilled understanding of the game and have put it on display throughout the regular season and the playoffs. Both of them are unsung heroes of this team and with that moniker comes a certain hunger to show people what they are worth.   Kim "birdring" Ji-Hyeok performed well against the Gladiators and he seemed to gain a lot of lost confidence back, but what London needs from him leading into their match with the Valiant is a level of consistency that he just has not been able to live up to. Now, that isn’t to say that he can’t catch fire again, but if I am a betting man, I don’t know that I am willing to put money on the fact that birdring will be able to survive all three matches. Comparing this fact to someone like Terence "SoOn" Tarlier, who has time after time been able to rise to the occasion and consistently perform, I have to give the Valiant a slight edge here. What’s even more terrifying is that the Valiant match them at every turn. Pound for pound they match up fairly well in the tank and support matchup but differ in DPS styles. Valiant’s DPS is a bit more reserved and consistent, the Spitfire’s DPS is much more streaky and flashy. Where the breaking point lies is up to interpretation, but I believe this match is going to be decided on the flex tank match up and between Indy "SPACE" Halpern and Fury you’ve got a massive amount of talent. Whoever has the better day is going to really push their team over the edge and give their respective DPS players room to flourish. You cannot forget the simple notion that the Valiant has had more time to not only study the Spitfire but also prepare for the new metagame and patch. While some rightfully question the consistency of Brady "Agilities" Girardi, given the amount of time that the Valiant has had, I I think he’s not only been able to add the new Hanzo to his hero pool, but he’s probably been able to download Profit’s aggressive positioning on heroes like Brigitte and Tracer. And this is where I’ll draw my conclusion. This is going to be a battle between flash and consistency. While my heart says London can continue to improve, my brain is leaning towards the steady nature of the Valiant. If the stars continue to align for the London Spitfire, they have a solid chance at taking this all the way to a final map, but I’ll reluctantly give this win to the Los Angeles Valiant, 2-1.  

New York Excelsior [2-0] Philadelphia Fusion

  Auguste "Semmler" Massonnat and Robert "hexagrams" Kirkbride made a solid point on the broadcast that the Philadelphia Fusion have played more game fives than any other team in the league. This shows resolve and a level of stamina that has pushed them into the playoffs, but their opponents are the Titans from New York. While Philadelphia does seem to blossom late into these best-of-five sets, you’re now going up against the best team in the world. Can you afford you drop two maps to NYXL to even think about mounting a comeback? I don’t think so. In their quarterfinal match against the Boston Uprising, the pressure and focus on to Carpe forced the Fusion to put everything on the table which gives New York all the footage in the world to begin to dismantle the Fusion’s gameplan. To better explain, in their second match against the Boston Uprising, on Night Market, the Fusion only managed to score 2 eliminations to the Uprising’s 19 eliminations. The pressure was mounting, the momentum was shifting in favor of Boston and Philadelphia needed to shift gears. During the break, the Fusion audited their strategy and approached their next match with a bit more patience. Leading into their third match, the Philadelphia Fusion made a clear stylistic change in response to how little room Carpe had on his signature hero, Widowmaker. They shifted into more of a tank centric style allowing Carpe pilot Brigitte to compliment the deathball and bolster the tanks with armor and crowd control abilities. I don’t believe the Fusion were expecting to have to reveal this much of their playbook in the quarterfinals and I can’t help but wonder what the NYXL have up their sleeves for them. It’s clear that the Fusion have a weakness on Control maps. If you look at their overall records on the two Control maps that will be played, the Fusion can battle NYXL on Lijiang Tower for a sly map win, but on Oasis, it should be a decisive victory for the NYXL and god forbid we see a tiebreaker on Nepal. With New York’s tendency to pull out their unorthodox Bastion strategy on Village, that adds another issue for Philadelphia to prepare for coupled with that they are also staring down the barrel of a 10-4 map win rate during the regular season. That being said, I doubt NYXL will be dropping Nepal either.   Out of any team in the playoffs, I think the New York Excelsior have some of the most potential in the league. They are the only team to have a regularly scheduled strategy, adding in Kim "Libero"  Hae-Seong's Hanzo to their Hanamura Point A executes. While this is a new Hanzo entirely, Libero has shown that he is one of the most flexible players in the world coming from a strong background as Meta Athena’s D.Va player as well as a seasoned projectile DPS player. Adding him alongside the likes of Park "Saebyeolbe" Jong-Ryeol’s open hero pool, I’m not sure from what angle you pressure this team from. Saebyeolbe has shown a high proficiency at Tracer, Widowmaker, and Roadhog, with that, said, I think between Saebyeolbe and Libero, they’ve got most of the offensive heroes covered. Could Kim "Pine" Do-Hyeon's Widowmaker or McCree make an appearance? It’s possible, but I'm not sure it’s going to be necessary. Even looking at their tank line, they’ve got two distinct main tanks that provide two completely different styles of play. Their flex tank is one of the best, if not the best in the world, and their support line in bulletproof. Not to mention they’ve got the regular season MVP, Bang "JJoNak" Sung-Hyeon's world-class Zenyatta to rely on. I lovingly dub the Excelsior the “Titans from New York” because not only are they the undisputed best team in the world at the moment they are a world class team from top to bottom. Amazing players, check. Intelligent coaching staff, check. Clear gameplans, check. New York passes with flying colors at every pass, and the only worry I have for them is the fear that they have been actually on a downswing. When we saw them last, they had already qualified for the playoffs as the first seed and we’re publicly noted as not taking the rest of their games as seriously as they had. While I think it’s fair to note that they have looked a little shaky at times in Stage 4, once they enter that first playoff match on Wednesday, we will be treated to a New York answering any and all questions that surrounded them. With Philadelphia’s wavering consistency issues alongside New York’s legendary potential, I’ve got to give this to New York coming out ahead with a decisive 2-0 victory. _____ Joseph “Volamel” Franco has followed esports since the MLGs of 2006. He started out primarily following Starcraft 2, Halo 3, and Super Smash Bros. Melee. He has transitioned from viewer to journalist and writes freelance primarily about Overwatch and League of Legends. If you would like to know more or follow his thoughts on esports you can follow him at @Volamel. Images courtesy of Blizzard Entertainment.
 

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